Systemic Volatility Shock Early Warning System

KRUPP CAPITAL

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CLOSED · WeekendRISK-ON
Awaiting data input...
NORMAL ELEVATED CRITICAL
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SPX|NDX|SPY|QQQ|IWM|DIA|VIX|VIX1D|VVIX|TLT|HYG|DXY|EURUSD|BTCUSDT|ETHUSDT|SOLUSDT|USO|GLD|XLK|XLF|XLE|XLY|XLP|XLV|XLI|XLB|XLRE|XLU|XLC|XBI|KRE|SOXX|AAPL|MSFT|NVDA|AMZN|GOOGL|META|TSLA|MSTR|SPX|NDX|SPY|QQQ|IWM|DIA|VIX|VIX1D|VVIX|TLT|HYG|DXY|EURUSD|BTCUSDT|ETHUSDT|SOLUSDT|USO|GLD|XLK|XLF|XLE|XLY|XLP|XLV|XLI|XLB|XLRE|XLU|XLC|XBI|KRE|SOXX|AAPL|MSFT|NVDA|AMZN|GOOGL|META|TSLA|MSTR|SPX|NDX|SPY|QQQ|IWM|DIA|VIX|VIX1D|VVIX|TLT|HYG|DXY|EURUSD|BTCUSDT|ETHUSDT|SOLUSDT|USO|GLD|XLK|XLF|XLE|XLY|XLP|XLV|XLI|XLB|XLRE|XLU|XLC|XBI|KRE|SOXX|AAPL|MSFT|NVDA|AMZN|GOOGL|META|TSLA|MSTR|
Sessions:
Markets Closed · WeekendGlobal futures reopen Sunday 18:00 ET (Asia/Globex overnight)
Macro:
DXYsim102.50+0.16%
TNXsim4.12%-0.90%
BTCsim$64.6k-2.40%
USOsim$75.60-1.80%
GLDsim$2386+0.84%
Data:
KC Data Warehouse
Data Quality: 0% (NO DATA)| 0/7 assets| Price freshness:

Asset Overview

14 assets · tab 1 / 2
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
SPX
S&P 500 IndexData unavailable
NDX
Nasdaq 100 IndexData unavailable
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETFData unavailable
QQQ
Invesco QQQ TrustData unavailable
VIX
CBOE Volatility IndexData unavailable
VVIX
CBOE VIX-of-VIX IndexData unavailable
VIX1D
CBOE 1-Day VIXData unavailable
IWM
iShares Russell 2000Data unavailable
DIA
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETFData unavailable
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFData unavailable
HYG
iShares High Yield CorpData unavailable
IBIT
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETFData unavailable
XLF
SPDR Financial Select Sector ETFData unavailable
XLE
SPDR Energy Select Sector ETFData unavailable

Regime Probability Distribution

Risk-On
81.5%
Transitioning
17.6%
Risk-Off
0.9%
Crisis
0.0%

Volatility & Sentiment (Intermarket Regime)

data pending · warehouse observations incomplete
Regime Diagnosis
DATA PENDING · INSUFFICIENT LIVE OBSERVATIONS
Trigger-Status: Awaiting complete live volatility and cross-asset observations.
SMART VS. DUMB MONEY SPREAD
PCCE (Retail Single-Stocks)N/A🔴 [Retail Call-Heavy < 0.50]

Retailer jagen Call-Optionen auf Momentum-Aktien — extremes Gier-Setup am empfindlichsten Ende des Marktes.

PCCI (Institutional Indexes)N/A🟢 [Institutional Put-Heavy > 1.40]

Institutionelle sichern Gesamtportfolio über Index-Puts ab — strukturelle Absicherung in der Pipeline.

VIXEQ-to-VIX RatioN/A⚠️ [High Dispersion > 2.50]

Einzelaktien entkoppeln untereinander (Dispersion) — der Index wird künstlich stabil gehalten.

BLACK SWAN & TAIL RISK WATCH
SKEW-to-VIX Ratio (SKEW null / VIX null)N/A🟢 [Tail-Risk Range 7-12]

Aggressive Nachfrage nach Out-of-the-Money Puts (Krisen-/Crash-Schutz). Markt wirkt oberflächlich ruhig.

VVIX-to-VIX Ratio (VVIX null / VIX null)N/A🔴 [VVIX Compression < 7]

VIX-Option-Pricing komprimiert — Marktteilnehmer kaufen billigen Schutz für spätere Fat-Tail-Events, keine sofortige Volatilitätsexplosion.

VOLATILITY TERM STRUCTURE
VIX1D / VIX Ratio (VIX1D null / VIX null)N/A🟢 [Intraday vs. 30d Vola]

Kontango / gesunder Markt — kurzfristige Intraday-Gammaschocks eingepreist, kein Spillover in Folge-Volas.

VIX / VXV Ratio (VIX null / VXV null)N/A🟢 [Standard Term Structure ~0.9]

Standard Term Structure — kein kurzfristiges Stress-Signal in der Vola-Kurve.

VOLATILITY INDEXES
VIX (30d S&P 500 Vola)[N/A]
Neutral 15-18 | Panik >25
VIX1D (1-Day / 0DTE Vola)[N/A]
Misst Intraday-Gammaschocks
VIXEQ (S&P Individual Vol)[N/A]
Misst implizite Einzelaktienvola
VXV / FIX3M (3-Month Vola)[N/A]
Gradmesser für die Vola-Kurve
VVIX (Volatility of VIX)[N/A]
Angstbarometer der Profis
MOVE (Bond Market Vola)[N/A]
Liquiditätsstress im Rentenmarkt
VXN (Nasdaq 100 Volatility)[N/A]
Tech-Sektor-Angstindikator
SKEW (Out-of-the-Money Puts)[N/A]
Black-Swan-Index (100-150)
PUT-CALL RATIOS
PCSPX (S&P 500 Index PCR)[N/A]
Neutral 0.90 | Bearish >1.20
PCCE (Cboe Equity PCR)[N/A]
Neutral 0.60 | Call-Heavy <0.50
PCCI (Cboe Index PCR)[N/A]
Neutral 1.10 | Put-Heavy >1.40
PCC (Cboe Total PCR)[N/A]
Gesamtmarkt-Sentiment-Mittelwert
CPCS (Equity Open Interest)[N/A]
Langfristiges Kapital-Commitment
CPCE (Equity Vol. 5d-MA)[N/A]
Geglätteter Retail-Indikator
PCR-NDX (Nasdaq 100 PCR)[N/A]
Tech-Sentiment (institutionell)
ISEE (Index Select PCR)[N/A]
Nur Eröffnungs-Longs (High = Bullish)

Keine vollständige Live-Diagnose: erforderliche Volatilitäts- und Cross-Asset-Beobachtungen fehlen im Warehouse.

Institutional Macro Regime & Transition Matrix

Master Regime Diagnosis
QUAD 1: RISK-ON REGIME
Current Regime Leader: 🟢 RISK-ON LAYER
Regime Transition Velocity
🟡 MEDIUM · WEIGHTING SHIFT
Verteilung verlagert sich zwischen Quadranten — Regime-Shift wahrscheinlich innerhalb 24-72h.
Probability Vector
Risk-On
81.5%
Transition
17.6%
Risk-Off
0.9%
Crisis
0.0%
⚡ Core Market Condition

The mathematical vector indicates systemic capital de-risking. High-beta growth assets are facing institutional distribution, while liquidity is rotating into defensive havens.

⚡ Volatility Regime Shift

With Crisis probability at 0.0% and a medium · weighting shift velocity, the market is on the verge of a Volatility Expansion. The probability of an abrupt Gamma Squeeze is elevated.

⚡ Tactical Trading Implication (Options & Delta)
  • 👉 Delta Exposure: Aggressively reduce Long Delta. Hedging required.
  • 👉 Volatility Strategy: Implement Long Vega structures (Long Put Spreads) or high-strike Tail-Hedges.

Die regime transitions Probability basiert auf gewichteter Kombination aus Composite-Score, Intermarket-Divergenzen, VIX-Term-Structure und Smart/Dumb-Money-Spread. Vier-Quadranten-Modell mit Markov-Übergängen.

Signal Dependency Graph

GEX Flow Macro Structural

1. Net GEX Regime

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
AssetNet GEXTotal GEXNeg SkewStatus
No GEX-eligible underlyings in this tab yet.

2. Put/Call GEX Ratio Escalation

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs

3. Gamma Grid · GEX Heatmap

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
GammaGrid · GEX Heatmap
No GEX snapshots yet for this tab group — collect warehouse snapshots first.

4. Expiry Clustering / Gamma-Cliff Calendar

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs

No expiry data loaded

5. IV vs HV Spread

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
AssetIVHVSpread (bp)IV-RankFlag
SPXNo data
NDXNo data
SPYNo data
QQQNo data
VIXNo data
IWMNo data
DIANo data
TLTNo data
HYGNo data
IBITNo data
XLFNo data
XLENo data

6. Correlation Snap Detector

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
No correlation data loaded for this group yet (need ≥5 sparkline points per asset).
Group Dispersion (mean |ρ|):
0.0%

Rolling pairwise correlation vs group anchor over the last ~60 1-min warehouse quotes.

7. GEX Acceleration

GREEN

8. Net DEX Monitor

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs

9. OTM Put Volume Explosion

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
1.2x Yellow1.5x Red / TOXIC

10. Composite Shock Score

GREEN
Overall Recommendation:Awaiting data input...
Risk Regime:RISK-ONRisk-friendly. Maintain beta. Sell vol on upticks.

11. VIX Term Structure

YELLOW
Curve · Front → Long EndData Pending
Slope (VIX→3M)
N/A
Curve Shape
N/A

Insufficient live VIX term-structure observations

Insufficient live observations for a trustworthy term-structure calculation.

12. Inter-Asset Correlation Matrix

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
Color scale:-10+1

Returns-based Pearson correlation over the last ~60 1-min warehouse quotes for the active tab group (11 assets). Diagonal = 1.0 (self). VIX/VVIX/VIX1D are excluded (no optionable GEX series). High positive correlations signal systemic deleveraging risk.

13. Dealer Aggregate Positioning

GREEN
Net GEX (sum)
0
Net DEX (sum)
0
Net Skew
0.0%
Contributions (net GEX by asset)

Aggregated dealer gamma/delta exposure across all warehouse-backed assets. Bar scale = largest per-asset |net GEX| so the aggregate position stays legible. Negative skew >25% indicates broad dealer short-gamma regime — amplifies realized volatility on any downside move.

14. GEX Distribution by Strike

GREEN
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
Asset:

GEX distribution by strike for SPX. Spot price marked with cyan dashed line. Gamma wall (red) = price magnet on downside. Gamma ceiling (cyan) = resistance on upside.

Strike profile is derived deterministically from net GEX, put/call ratio, and spot using the same warehouse GEX snapshot the Gamma Grid (module 3) renders.

15. Multi-Asset Comparison Matrix

All 27 assets · grouped · full-width
No GEX data loaded. Load demo data or a scenario to populate the comparison matrix.

Alarm History

No alarms recorded